Premarket Sep 25: ES +0.2%, oil slip, Akamai

The lead

S&P futures +~0.2% — ES ~7,786 vs Thu settle 7,767; cash Thu close 7,704.13; NQ ~30,878 (+~0.4% vs 30,767) (~9:15 ET Yahoo).

• 10-year ~5.18% — edged higher from Thu settle 5.162; bond selloff pauses in headline terms but the long end has not given much back (WSJ; WSJ Treasuries).
• Oil slipped hard overnight — Hormuz reopen hopes, not a finished truce. WTI ~$92.5 (−~2% vs Thu $94.61); Brent ~$98 (−~8% vs Thu $106.6) — three-digit Brent from Thursday’s session is off the board into the open (WSJ; WSJ oil).
• Archive overnight: Akamai 8-K — Anthropic ~$11.6B / 7y CPU cloud commitment (optional +$9B; ~$5.5B related capex; warrant up to ~5%); AKAM ~$127 premarket vs Thu close $110.41. Oracle Jupiter update — WSJ Friday “cracks” framing (FM + partner removal + local resistance); ORCL ~$139 premarket, still soft after Thu −3.5%.
• Trump–Xi — dinner done; optics over deliverables. State dinner / tech-CEO table; trade truce already extended to Jan 10; Xi cited a “new trade arrangement” without sector detail; AI dialogue / “under human control” rhetoric; no advanced-chip export-control deal on the overnight tape. Friday: National Archives then departure (Yonhap; CNBC).
• SoftBank OpenAI HY — still on the calendar (settle Sep 29 / OpenAI tranche ~Oct 1); not rehashed from Thursday’s cash session.

Thursday’s open question — Jupiter FM + ~5.16% 10y + ~$107 Brent vs Mag7/SOX reopen on Trump–Xi — partially reset overnight: summit optics without a Mag7 reopen tell; Brent off three-digit on Hormuz hopes; 10y still ~5.18%; Akamai–Anthropic offtake cleared as a CPU-cloud contrast to Jupiter lease stress.

Open question: Into SoftBank settle Sep 29 / OpenAI ~Oct 1, does Jupiter FM plus a sticky ~5.18% 10y still force Stargate/DC credit stress, or do softer oil and the Akamai–Anthropic offtake reopen Mag7/SOX after a summit that delivered optics more than chip/AI financing relief?

Positioning

AI capex durability — offtake cleared on Akamai CPU cloud; Jupiter stress is still schedule/financing friction, not a hyperscaler guide-down. Anthropic’s ~$11.6B seven-year dedicated cloud/CPU commitment (optional +$9B; ~$5.5B related capex; warrant up to ~5%) is a dated lab offtake outside the top-four hyperscaler print — contractual, subject to termination and delivery conditions, not immediate revenue. Oracle’s Project Jupiter FM re-entered overnight via WSJ “cracks” framing (partner removal + local resistance on top of the Thu notice); Magouyrk already said Jupiter does not hit FY27 guide. Theme falsifier (top-four sequential capex cut / inference cost killing new build) still unmet — financing and site friction sit closer than yesterday’s SoftBank oversubscription tape.

Top stories

Akamai — Anthropic ~$11.6B seven-year CPU cloud; optional +$9B; warrant up to ~5%. Primary 8-K / Ex. 99.1: Project Plans 2–3 under the May 2026 MSA; ~$5.5B related capex including ~+$1.7B of 2026 supply pre-buy (memory); no change to 2026 revenue guidance; AKAM gapping higher premarket (news; Yahoo AKAM).

Oracle Jupiter — WSJ Friday “cracks” update on Thu FM; ORCL still soft. Change vs Thursday’s postmarket: WSJ frames force majeure + key-partner removal + local resistance as cracks in Oracle’s AI DC build-out; hell-or-high-water lease claim circulating unverified on X; Barclays (via ZH) flags possible ~$30B hardware-capex delay if online slips; Oracle Japan +>7% on record 1Q is a separate entity (news; WSJ; CNBC Japan; Yahoo ORCL).

Futures firm / oil eased — rates still the long-end problem. ES +~0.2% / NQ +~0.4%; 10y ~5.18%; WTI ~$92.5 / Brent ~$98 as WSJ live coverage ties the crude fade to Hormuz-reopen hopes (Yahoo ES; Yahoo TNX; WSJ).

Trump–Xi — state dinner optics; truce to Jan 10; no chip-control deliverable overnight. Warm friendship / strategic-stability rhetoric; Xi “new trade arrangement” without disclosed sector cuts; AI cooperation language; Friday Archives visit then departure. China Beige Book: surprise jump in U.S. orders into the summit as firms positioned for stability (Yonhap; CNBC).

What to watch

SoftBank settle Sep 29 / OpenAI tranche ~Oct 1. Whether aftermarket spreads and CDS hold after Jupiter FM, a sticky ~5.18% 10y, and overnight Akamai offtake optics.

Oracle–Blue Owl FM negotiation / Jupiter 2028 path. Whether FM is agreed (possible rent delay) or walked back; NM air-quality decision Nov 23; whether WSJ “cracks” framing widens lender stress (news).

Akamai–Anthropic delivery / termination conditions. Whether the $11.6B CPU commitment converts on schedule or stalls on service-availability terms; memory/supply pre-buy follow-through (news).

Texas AG water-survey responses / Abbott TCEQ Oct 19. Still load-bearing site-friction calendar from Thursday — compliance teeth, not a freeze by itself.

October FOMC vs Williams / Warsh market-signaling. Whether FedWatch hangs elevated through SoftBank aftermarket with 10y still near multiyear highs.

Hormuz / Iran follow-through. Whether overnight reopen hopes stick or reverse — Brent already off Thursday’s ~$107 print (WSJ).