SemiAnalysis — 300+ DC moratoriums map to 1.5GW slip, not buildout death

Opening

Mapped moratoriums — SemiAnalysis says local bans are not killing the U.S. buildout. @SemiAnalysis_ posted that after mapping 300+ moratoriums, "20GW sits inside a restricted local boundary," "1,525MW actually slips," and "2.3GW nationwide including New York," disagreeing with the claim that moratoriums are killing U.S. datacenter buildout. Newsletter link in post: Everyone Says Datacenter Moratoriums Are Killing the US Buildout. We Mapped All 300 of Them.

The numbers

20GW inside restricted local boundaries — SemiAnalysis map. 1,525MW actually slips — SemiAnalysis. 2.3GW nationwide including New York — SemiAnalysis.

Why it matters

Separates headline moratorium count from megawatts that actually move. Complements Wells's +175% active-moratorium count without treating count growth as equivalent to cancelled GW.

Positioning

AI capex durability — Permit friction can delay sites without falsifying compute-bound demand; the slip MW figure is the observable to watch versus cancelled hyperscaler spend.

Connects to

Wells moratorium count up 175% — Count vs slip MW (news).

Delta

2026-09-17 — @SemiAnalysis_ follow-on: SpaceX “is no longer subject to the Brownsville moratorium,” framed as an example of why mapped mechanisms matter more than moratorium counts; points back to the same newsletter already queued for longform.