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Fri, 25 Sept 2026
Brief 16:30 ET
Postmarket Sep 25: S&P +0.5%; oil fade; SOX +1%
S&P +0.5% / SOX +1.4%. 10y ~5.18%; Brent ~$98. AKAM held green, ORCL soft. DoD Anthropic bar upheld; China DC model.
postmarket
Brief 09:15 ET
Premarket Sep 25: ES +0.2%, oil slip, Akamai
ES +~0.2%; 10y ~5.18%; Brent ~$98 on Hormuz hopes. Akamai–Anthropic $11.6B; WSJ Jupiter “cracks.” Trump–Xi optics, no chip deal.
premarket
Thu, 24 Sept 2026
Brief 16:30 ET
Postmarket Sep 24: S&P flat; ORCL FM; oil $107
S&P ~flat / SOX −0.3%. 10y ~5.16%; Brent ~$107. Oracle Jupiter FM (−3.5%); Texas AG water probe. SoftBank print digested.
postmarket
Brief 09:25 ET
Premarket Sep 24: SoftBank prints; soft futures; Trump–Xi
SoftBank issued ~$11.1B OpenAI HY. S&P futures ~−0.5%; 10y ~5.13%; Brent still >$100 into Trump–Xi dinner.
premarket
Wed, 23 Sept 2026
Brief 16:45 ET
Postmarket Sep 23: S&P −0.75%; 10y 5.11%; oil up
S&P −0.75% / NQ −1.13% / SOX −1.2%. 10y ~5.11% (2007 high). Oil rebound; Barr more hikes. Ramp 5.73%; Claude ART enzyme.
postmarket
Brief 09:00 ET
Premarket Sep 23: soft open; SoftBank HY; 16Hi
S&P soft (−0.1%) after flat Tuesday. SoftBank HY >$20B interest. JPM 16Hi→2029 relay; Samsung D0a hybrid bonding; Trump–Xi today.
premarket
Tue, 22 Sept 2026
Brief 16:50 ET
Postmarket Sep 22: S&P flat; SOX +2%; Opus/Sol cuts
S&P flat / NQ +0.45% / SOX +2.1%. Brent $99.25; 10y ~4.97%. Barkin keeps hike door open. Opus ~40% cheaper; Sol/Luna −50%.
postmarket
Brief 09:00 ET
Premarket Sep 22: ES soft green; oil; SoftBank HY
ES ~+0.1% after Nasdaq record; Brent soft near $100, 10y ~4.9%. SoftBank ~$11B OpenAI HY, Abbott TCEQ halt, EMIB/Penang, Alibaba Zhenwu.
premarket
Sat, 19 Sept 2026
Brief 08:35 ET
Weekend Sep 19: Fed week ~flat; OpenAI −$278B FCF
S&P ~flat Fed-hike week; 10y ~5%, WTI $100. Overnight: OpenAI −$278B FCF path, Anthropic >$100B ARR / Nov IPO talk, Nscale S-1, Accenture eval.
weekend
Fri, 18 Sept 2026
Brief 16:50 ET
Postmarket Sep 18: S&P +0.17%; SOX +2.8%; CLSK HY
Witching Friday mixed-narrow: S&P +0.17% / NQ +0.39% / Dow −0.18%. 10y ~5.00%; WTI $100.30. CleanSpark Meta HY ~$2.28B 4× bid.
postmarket
Brief 09:00 ET
Premarket Sep 18: ES flat; oil eases; Crusoe $3.9B
Futures muted into witching; 10y ~4.98%. Crusoe $3.9B, SoftBank Arm loan, labs hunt 20–30 MW DCs; Dwarkesh–Brown swarms.
premarket
Thu, 17 Sept 2026
Brief 16:50 ET
Postmarket Sep 17: S&P +1.1%; Huang 2x; oil eases
Bounce stuck — S&P +1.13% / Nasdaq +1.62%. Huang ~2x chips; Nvidia–Brookfield $2B. Oil settles ~$102; 10y ~4.95%.
postmarket
Brief 09:00 ET
Premarket Sep 17: futures bounce; oil <$100; Fed digest
Futures rebound after Fed selloff; WTI under $100; 10y eases under 5%. Generac–Amazon power; Gerstner offtake; OpenRouter share flip.
premarket
Wed, 16 Sept 2026
Brief 16:45 ET
Postmarket Sep 16: Fed hike; Dow −1.2%; chips hold
Unanimous 25bp hike; Warsh hawkish. S&P −0.45% / Dow −1.21% / SOX +0.63%. Oil off highs; Amazon–Generac DC power; Apollo CDS caution.
postmarket
Brief 09:00 ET
Premarket Sep 16: Fed day, 10y ~5%, Hynix–Intel
Futures modestly higher into Fed; 10y eased under 5%; oil still three-digit. Hynix–Intel memory talks; pacing reframed as more compute.
premarket
Tue, 15 Sept 2026
Brief 16:35 ET
Postmarket Sep 15: rates/oil dominate; chips bounce into Fed
S&P −0.45% as 10y tagged ~5.04%; SOX bounced while indexes fell. Ramp Astra 13% vs Fable 8%; AWS Bahrain unrestorable; Kyber slip to 2028.
postmarket
Brief 09:00 ET
Premarket Sep 15: oil, 5% 10y, Fed
Futures ~flat into Fed; 10y tagged ~5.02% and oil stayed three-digit. Tan reaffirms Broadcom AI path; Anthropic GW financeability still open.
premarket
Mon, 14 Sept 2026
Brief 16:30 ET
Postmarket Sep 14: slowdown selloff concentrates in chips and power — pacing is mix, not cliff
Session closed SPX −0.5% / Nasdaq −0.6% with positive breadth; damage in SOXX, chips, and AI-power. Baker reframes pacing as more alignment compute and lower lab margins; HBM 4-Hi stays contested sell-side vs SemiAnalysis.
postmarket
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Brief · Fri, 25 Sept 2026 · 09:15 ET

Premarket Sep 25: ES +0.2%, oil slip, Akamai

ES +~0.2%; 10y ~5.18%; Brent ~$98 on Hormuz hopes. Akamai–Anthropic $11.6B; WSJ Jupiter “cracks.” Trump–Xi optics, no chip deal.

Edition: premarket

The lead

S&P futures +~0.2% — ES ~7,786 vs Thu settle 7,767; cash Thu close 7,704.13; NQ ~30,878 (+~0.4% vs 30,767) (~9:15 ET Yahoo).

  • 10-year ~5.18% — edged higher from Thu settle 5.162; bond selloff pauses in headline terms but the long end has not given much back (WSJ; WSJ Treasuries).
  • Oil slipped hard overnight — Hormuz reopen hopes, not a finished truce. WTI ~$92.5 (−~2% vs Thu $94.61); Brent ~$98 (−~8% vs Thu $106.6) — three-digit Brent from Thursday’s session is off the board into the open (WSJ; WSJ oil).
  • Archive overnight: Akamai 8-K — Anthropic ~$11.6B / 7y CPU cloud commitment (optional +$9B; ~$5.5B related capex; warrant up to ~5%); AKAM ~$127 premarket vs Thu close $110.41. Oracle Jupiter update — WSJ Friday “cracks” framing (FM + partner removal + local resistance); ORCL ~$139 premarket, still soft after Thu −3.5%.
  • Trump–Xi — dinner done; optics over deliverables. State dinner / tech-CEO table; trade truce already extended to Jan 10; Xi cited a “new trade arrangement” without sector detail; AI dialogue / “under human control” rhetoric; no advanced-chip export-control deal on the overnight tape. Friday: National Archives then departure (Yonhap; CNBC).
  • SoftBank OpenAI HY — still on the calendar (settle Sep 29 / OpenAI tranche ~Oct 1); not rehashed from Thursday’s cash session.

Thursday’s open question — Jupiter FM + ~5.16% 10y + ~$107 Brent vs Mag7/SOX reopen on Trump–Xi — partially reset overnight: summit optics without a Mag7 reopen tell; Brent off three-digit on Hormuz hopes; 10y still ~5.18%; Akamai–Anthropic offtake cleared as a CPU-cloud contrast to Jupiter lease stress.

Open question: Into SoftBank settle Sep 29 / OpenAI ~Oct 1, does Jupiter FM plus a sticky ~5.18% 10y still force Stargate/DC credit stress, or do softer oil and the Akamai–Anthropic offtake reopen Mag7/SOX after a summit that delivered optics more than chip/AI financing relief?

Positioning

AI capex durability — offtake cleared on Akamai CPU cloud; Jupiter stress is still schedule/financing friction, not a hyperscaler guide-down. Anthropic’s ~$11.6B seven-year dedicated cloud/CPU commitment (optional +$9B; ~$5.5B related capex; warrant up to ~5%) is a dated lab offtake outside the top-four hyperscaler print — contractual, subject to termination and delivery conditions, not immediate revenue. Oracle’s Project Jupiter FM re-entered overnight via WSJ “cracks” framing (partner removal + local resistance on top of the Thu notice); Magouyrk already said Jupiter does not hit FY27 guide. Theme falsifier (top-four sequential capex cut / inference cost killing new build) still unmet — financing and site friction sit closer than yesterday’s SoftBank oversubscription tape.

Top stories

Akamai — Anthropic ~$11.6B seven-year CPU cloud; optional +$9B; warrant up to ~5%. Primary 8-K / Ex. 99.1: Project Plans 2–3 under the May 2026 MSA; ~$5.5B related capex including ~+$1.7B of 2026 supply pre-buy (memory); no change to 2026 revenue guidance; AKAM gapping higher premarket (news; Yahoo AKAM).

Oracle Jupiter — WSJ Friday “cracks” update on Thu FM; ORCL still soft. Change vs Thursday’s postmarket: WSJ frames force majeure + key-partner removal + local resistance as cracks in Oracle’s AI DC build-out; hell-or-high-water lease claim circulating unverified on X; Barclays (via ZH) flags possible ~$30B hardware-capex delay if online slips; Oracle Japan +>7% on record 1Q is a separate entity (news; WSJ; CNBC Japan; Yahoo ORCL).

Futures firm / oil eased — rates still the long-end problem. ES +~0.2% / NQ +~0.4%; 10y ~5.18%; WTI ~$92.5 / Brent ~$98 as WSJ live coverage ties the crude fade to Hormuz-reopen hopes (Yahoo ES; Yahoo TNX; WSJ).

Trump–Xi — state dinner optics; truce to Jan 10; no chip-control deliverable overnight. Warm friendship / strategic-stability rhetoric; Xi “new trade arrangement” without disclosed sector cuts; AI cooperation language; Friday Archives visit then departure. China Beige Book: surprise jump in U.S. orders into the summit as firms positioned for stability (Yonhap; CNBC).

What to watch

SoftBank settle Sep 29 / OpenAI tranche ~Oct 1. Whether aftermarket spreads and CDS hold after Jupiter FM, a sticky ~5.18% 10y, and overnight Akamai offtake optics.

Oracle–Blue Owl FM negotiation / Jupiter 2028 path. Whether FM is agreed (possible rent delay) or walked back; NM air-quality decision Nov 23; whether WSJ “cracks” framing widens lender stress (news).

Akamai–Anthropic delivery / termination conditions. Whether the $11.6B CPU commitment converts on schedule or stalls on service-availability terms; memory/supply pre-buy follow-through (news).

Texas AG water-survey responses / Abbott TCEQ Oct 19. Still load-bearing site-friction calendar from Thursday — compliance teeth, not a freeze by itself.

October FOMC vs Williams / Warsh market-signaling. Whether FedWatch hangs elevated through SoftBank aftermarket with 10y still near multiyear highs.

Hormuz / Iran follow-through. Whether overnight reopen hopes stick or reverse — Brent already off Thursday’s ~$107 print (WSJ).

The Open/Close  ·  Research commentary, not investment advice. Positions may be held in securities mentioned.

Assembled from2 documents
NAkamai–Anthropic $11.6B seven-year CPU cloud dealNewsprimary

Akamai 8-K/PR: Anthropic commits ~$11.6B over seven years for dedicated cloud/CPU capacity; optional +$9B; ~$5.5B related capex.

Fri, 25 Sept 2026 · 07:16 ET
NOracle force majeure on Project Jupiter NM DCNewsreported

Bloomberg via CNBC/TechCrunch: Oracle sent Blue Owl force majeure on Stargate Project Jupiter; seeks payment delay if 2028 slip; ORCL −4%.

Fri, 25 Sept 2026 · 07:16 ET